As Bitcoin prices continue to soar, many attribute the rise to Donald Trump’s recent presidential election win in the United States. However, according to Jesse Myers, co-founder of Onramp Bitcoin, Trump’s victory may be just a minor factor in Bitcoin’s current rally. Instead, Myers points to a deeper, structural cause—Bitcoin’s post-halving supply shock.
Following Bitcoin’s latest halving event in April, block rewards for miners were cut from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, reducing the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation. “If you’re wondering what’s happening with #Bitcoin… Yes, the incoming Bitcoin-friendly administration has provided a recent catalyst… But, that’s not the main story here,” Myers posted on X (formerly Twitter). “The main story here is that we are 6+ months post-halving.”
This halving, which occurs roughly every four years, creates a supply crunch by limiting new Bitcoin available to meet rising demand. The scarcity effect, according to Myers, is exacerbated by a spike in institutional interest, especially through U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launched in January. Just on Nov. 11, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs reportedly added 13,940 BTC in a single day, compared to the mere 450 BTC mined.
The Supply Shock Explained
Myers explains that due to the supply-demand imbalance, Bitcoin’s price must rise to restore market equilibrium. He believes this cycle will inevitably lead to another “bubble” phase, similar to previous post-halving spikes in 2012, 2016, and 2020. “There has never been an asset in the world where new supply creation is halved every four years,” he noted, calling this predictable bubble effect a unique feature of Bitcoin’s design.
On-chain analyst James Check supports this view, comparing Bitcoin’s limited $1.6 trillion market cap to gold, which saw $6 trillion added over the past year yet continually brings new and recycled supply into the market. Bitcoin, by contrast, is “absolutely scarce,” Check stated, with just 1.2 million BTC left to mine.
Scarcity and Institutional Interest
Other prominent figures echo this bullish outlook. On Nov. 12, financier Anthony Scaramucci advised those without Bitcoin investments that it’s “still early.” He speculated that the U.S. might soon establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, potentially triggering a domino effect as other countries follow suit.
With 94% of all Bitcoin already in circulation or irretrievably lost, the remaining supply is shrinking, intensifying the scarcity and upward price pressure. For Bitcoin investors, this confluence of factors suggests a robust and ongoing rally, fueled less by politics and more by the inherent economics of supply and demand.
Jaja has a degree in journalism and took classes in international law and business communication. Her career spans roles at prominent international media outlets, including International Business Times, Celebeat and Delightful Philippines. As a news editor, Jaja covered a wide range of beats, including legal, business, economy, cryptocurrency, personal finance, gaming, technology, and entertainment.