NASA scientists are closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, a newly detected space rock nearly the size of a football field that has a 1.6% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. If it hits, the impact could cause city-level devastation, releasing energy hundreds of times greater than the Hiroshima bomb.
While experts caution that the probability of impact will likely decrease with further observations, the asteroid has been classified as a Level 3 threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, meaning it requires close monitoring.
“This isn’t the time to panic, but we need to pay close attention,” said Bruce Betts, chief scientist at The Planetary Society. “We need more data to refine its trajectory.”
A Potential Catastrophe in the Making?
First spotted on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile, 2024 YR4 measures between 130 and 300 feet wide. It follows a four-year elliptical orbit that swings between the inner planets before passing Mars and Jupiter.
According to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), if the asteroid does strike Earth, possible impact sites include:
- The eastern Pacific Ocean
- Northern South America
- The Atlantic Ocean
- Africa
- The Arabian Sea
- South Asia
The last similar event occurred in 1908, when an asteroid measuring 30 to 50 meters exploded over Siberia, flattening 80 million trees across 770 square miles in what is now known as the Tunguska Event. Scientists say 2024 YR4’s explosion could release an estimated eight megatons of energy—500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.
“If you put this over New York, London, or Paris, you basically wipe out an entire city and the surrounding areas,” said Betts.
How Scientists Plan to Stop It
Although 2024 YR4 is currently moving away from Earth, its next close pass will be in 2028, giving scientists several years to assess its trajectory and develop countermeasures.
NASA previously tested a planetary defense strategy in 2022 with its DART mission, which successfully altered the orbit of an asteroid by crashing a spacecraft into it—a method known as a kinetic impactor.
“I don’t see why this wouldn’t work again,” said Andrew Rivkin, a planetary astronomer at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.
Other proposed methods include:
- Laser vaporization to push the asteroid off course
- Gravity tractors—large spacecraft that gently nudge the asteroid away using their own gravitational pull
- Evacuating impact zones in a worst-case scenario
While NASA stresses that there is no immediate cause for panic, experts continue to track the asteroid, ensuring that if it does pose a genuine threat, there will be ample time to prepare.
“We can find these things, predict them, and take action,” said NASA’s Kelly Fast, acting planetary defense officer. “Nobody should be scared—but we should always be ready.”
Jaja has a degree in journalism and took classes in international law and business communication. Her career spans roles at prominent international media outlets, including International Business Times, Celebeat and Delightful Philippines. As a news editor, Jaja covered a wide range of beats, including legal, business, economy, cryptocurrency, personal finance, gaming, technology, and entertainment.