Chicken prices could soar to P324 per kilo while rice may hit P67 under a worst-case scenario, as the Department of Agriculture (DA) warned that a prolonged global oil crisis could trigger sharp food price increases nationwide.
Agriculture Undersecretary U-Nichols Manalo raised the alarm during a Senate hearing on the Proactive Response and Oversight for Timely and Effective Crisis Strategy (PROTECT) on Tuesday, March 24, saying authorities are closely monitoring both global developments and domestic supply conditions.
“We are closely monitoring the prices of our basic commodities, including fertilizers, and the supply of food and agricultural products relative to projected impacts,” Manalo said.
He outlined a scenario in which major damage to Middle East oil infrastructure pushes crude prices to $200 per barrel for 180 days, driving up costs across the agriculture sector.
Under this scenario, retail chicken prices could jump from P200 to P324 per kilo, while pork—particularly kasim and liempo—would also rise sharply. Well-milled rice prices could increase by 49 percent, from P45 to P67 per kilo.
Fertilizer prices are also expected to surge. Granular urea could increase by P288 per 50-kilogram bag, while drilled urea may rise by P237—pushing farmgate production costs up by P1 to P1.50 per kilo.
Rice production could also decline from the annual target of 19.87 million metric tons (MT), with output dropping by 7,169 MT in the first semester and by 104,075 MT in the second semester.
Corn production, a key feed ingredient, may fall by 156,636 MT from its projected 3.2 million MT output.
Vegetable supply could also take a hit. Lowland “pinakbet” crops may decline by 81,230 MT, while highland vegetables could drop by 22,287 MT. Onion supply is also expected to tighten due to higher storage and fuel costs.
The livestock sector faces additional risks, as two to three percent of smallholder farmers may go bankrupt or shift to other livelihoods if the crisis worsens.
Fisherfolk could also feel the strain, with daily fuel costs for motorized fishing boats projected to reach P1,000 per fisher.
Manalo stressed the need for swift intervention, warning that current buffer stocks may not be enough if the crisis persists. He noted that the National Food Authority’s rice inventory—equivalent to about nine days of supply—may fall short under prolonged pressure.*
Reymund Titong is a Filipino journalist steadily building his voice in the field of news reporting, driven by a commitment to tell meaningful and relevant stories.
He serves as a correspondent for Rappler, maintains a personal blog on Medium, and is the communications officer of Hope Builders Organization Negros Island.